|
Horse
Racing Gold
Anyone can win at race betting -
and it takes very little skill - (?!?)
Okay - I assume you've picked yourself up off the floor, wiped the tears of laughter from your face, and are ready to read on - out of sheer incredulity if nothing else!
First - you may have jumped to conclusions about that statement.
It is, after all, an absolutely true statement that cannot be disputed. We've all seen the complete newbie win with his hunch play, or little old ladies with their hatpins, or a guy winning a big pick 6 by using the ages of his 6 children - etc., etc.. They won - easily and without the merits of skill or adept handicapping.
Of course, you're right - that was just a race or short series of races, and they "got lucky" and happened to hit. It has no bearing on what their results might be in a longer series of racing days, weeks, and months.
But - it points to a fact often (and conveniently) overlooked by the average player: Anything can happen in a horse race. In all of horse racing, there is only one indisputable truth - the outcome of every race is uncertain.
I've been in this game for 26 years, and I still (weekly if not daily) see events and combinations of events in a horse race that boggle the mind - and could never have been anticipated.
Just yesterday, I was watching TVG - the pacers at Dover Downs - and witnessed something almost beyond imagination. As the horses and drivers raced towards the far turn, they had to suddenly split apart and take up wildly to avoid . . . the tractor guy harrowing the track! He had completely spaced out and forgot there was a race running!!
So - the racing gods are going to contrive almost unimaginable circumstances to beat you - to beat you time and time again - and to make a mockery of all the in-depth and subtle analysis you've done on the race.
What does all this have to do with my original statement?
Most players play "nervous."
They are unsure of themselves because of the aforementioned uncertainty. They begin to believe that it's all just a random walk, and that there is no hope to actually beat the game long-term.
These players love the game, and they are disinclined to quit it completely. They relish the challenge. Often; however, this leads to a never-ending search for that "better system," or thinking that by trying harder and harder, enough can be learned to become more sure of the outcome of the races being bet.
Hey - but we've already established that this is a very confounding game we play, and that there is never certainty about any one race's outcome. All the endless searching for the "holy grail" - the trying of this or that method for a week or two, then junking it - the endless zigging and zagging . . . it's all a crutch.
It's how players deal with the frustration. It's how they compensate.
They have challenged a risky situation that often has negative results for which they are not ready to take personal responsibility.
Most players take losing poorly.
Inwardly, maybe subconsciously, they blame themselves - as if losing a horse race reflects a measure of their own incompetence. Outwardly, they often blame anything else; the method, the jockey, the trainer, the horse - the tractor!
The truth we've already established though - is that there can be no blame for losing a race because the outcome was already absolutely uncertain from the start.
The blaming, both internal and external, only serves to pull the player down to his own lowest common denominator. It takes the pure and natural uncertainty of a horse race and creates fear, anger, regret and disappointment. The funny thing is - that is why we play the game in the first place - the challenge of trying to figure out and predict an uncertain outcome and be rewarded for it.
Success in this game requires separation from the emotional.
It also requires the elimination of expectations, and the disillusionment that comes when these (short-term) expectations are not realized. The serious player needs to assume absolute personal responsibility for his or her decisions.
Success requires only that a player find a method, a set of spot plays, a handicapping service - whatever - that holds a long-term positive edge. He should then play into that edge in a relatively emotionless and unswerving manner.
Next race or short-term expectations cannot enter into it. Neither losses nor wins should cause the player to move away from his chosen approach.
Success at anything is nothing more than a state-of-mind.
The successful player has to acquire a state-of-mind that is unaffected by losses. As well, the giddiness and overblown elation the average player feels after big winners and "blue moon" winning streaks should be guarded against.
Betting the races is not a danger to us.
We; however, can be a danger to ourselves. The potential to become overly reckless or overly confident - the propensity to get depressed or ecstatic - all these mitigate against the otherwise easy task of winning at race betting.
So - what characterizes the mental qualities of the successful player?
 |
Complete acceptance of the risk involved. |
|
Maintaining consistency and fearlessness in
spite of |
|
Not becoming over-confident in spite of
incredible |
|
Not associating a losing race, day, or week with "being |
|
And - most important - the ability to act (bet)
without |
Think about those qualities for a moment.
For the average player, the perceived risk factor for the next wager, and his confidence or lack of same - is the result of the outcome of the most recent few wagers!
It makes no sense.
____________________________
There is one unavoidable prerequisite to all this - if a player doesn't have a "risk" bankroll - he can't play the game in a way that offers a good chance at success, and winning the game will not be at all easy in that case.
It's very tough to play with "scared" money - money that could or should be used to pay down other debts - or money that it hurts too much to lose. It would be rare for a player to start from this point and succeed.
A player in that situation should be realistic about it. Participate in the game as a hobby, and take care of life's other priorities first. Save some money to create a decent sized bankroll that is unencumbered by guilt and committed only to the goal of serious race betting.
____________________________
In closing this article, I'd like to present a few other ideas for you to think about . . .
A quote from one of my mentors:
"What you haven't learned yet is invisible."
Would you agree that the roll of the dice, or the spin of a roulette wheel is a completely random event?
I'll assume your answer is, "yes." Okay - how is it then that the casinos make billions on the uncertain and uncontrollable outcome of random events?
Easy answer: They have a slight edge and they gain the profits of that slight edge applied to a large number of bets.
Find your slight edge. Then bet small enough that your bankroll can withstand the losing streaks that are a natural result of any series of uncertain events.
The surprises and uncertainty of life create the wonder that makes it worth living.
Tools to help you along your road to race betting success . . .
Good Luck and Good Wagering! - Gary
