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Horse
Racing Gold
Progression Betting.
Anything other than flat betting is invariably a kind of progression - but the subject here is, as it should be, a bit controversial: Raising bets after losses.
“Gamblers Ruin” is a term used to denote (not quite as scary as it sounds) loss of bankroll. Though that is something that should be avoided at all cost - it really isn't actually the “ruin” of the bettor - but it will put him out of the game until a new bankroll has been scraped together.
The surest way to “Gamblers Ruin” is the infamous “Martingale” method of doubling up after each loss. A gambler sticking to one of the even money bets in - say - Roulette will only be operating at about a 1.5 percent disadvantage. If that player has a huge bankroll and starts with a minimum bet, he might be able to make a true “Martingale” betting method work for days, weeks, even months - who knows?
Sooner or later, however, a vicious and prolonged losing streak will come along which will take the gambler past his ability to make the next bet - either because his bankroll has been severely depleted, or because he doesn’t have the nerve to make the next bet.
Example: Say his minimum starting bet is $5.00 - and he encounters a losing streak of 15 in a row. Here are the required bets for doubling up on each loss:
5 - 10 - 20 - 40 -80 - 160 - 320 - 640 - 1280 - 2560 - 5120 - 10,240 - 20,480 - 40,960 - 81,920. . . and bet number 16 would call for $163,840 - just to get back his original $5.00 bet and end up with a paltry $5.00 in profit!!
The insanity of it is obvious.
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In horse race wagering, an extended losing streak of 15 races is not that rare - particularly if you’re going after high paying horses.Now, if you played only select 4-5, 1-1, and 6-5 types to approximate the even money roulette bets, a 15 race streak might never happen. Even a 10-12 race losing streak would be extremely rare - but, my gosh, after chasing a 10-12 race losing streak down while doubling up just to get back a little profit on your original bet?
Your ROI would be pitiful!
A player could, however, scale way back from the “doubling up” mode.Variations on the following have been put forth before - the idea is this: Find a bet that has a good winning percentage, say 35%% or higher. Flat bet it until an average length losing streak has been encountered, and only then start the progression. You run the progression until you have “cleared” the series - i.e. recovered losses and gained a profit.
But - those visions keep coming back - of the “Martingale” maniac sweating blood as he steps up to make his next “bridge jumper” sized bet - trying only to just GET BACK!
As a safety factor, a winning percentage that exceeds 40%% - say 50%% - is better. You should feel confident that this percentage is solid before undertaking this kind of progression.
That pretty much limits the approach to place and show betting.
Let’s say you have a handicapping method that hits 32% winners at an average $7.60 mutuel. You’re carrying a great ROI of around +21%.That same horse might be expected to win or place (pay to place) about 60% of the time. It would pay maybe $3.80 on average. Here your ROI would be figured this way: 60 winning bets in 100 pay you $3.80 - so $228 returned on $200 bet = +14%% ROI.
No great bragging rights there - but a player could apply a progression that would likely pump up that ROI enough that he could grind out a pretty good wage - if he cared to do so.
Here’s how:
Let’s assume that with a 60% winning race average, losing streaks of 2 and 3 would be fairly common - streaks of 4 and 5 would occur only occasionally - and losing streaks of 6 or more would be rare.
The player would start his progression only after 3 consecutive losses had been incurred. Then, it would be unlikely that he would encounter another 4 losses in a row.
Since most wins will happen soon after starting the series - we can escalate our bet series rapidly at first and begin to taper back only after we know we’re in one of those “blue moon” streaks of more than 8 races.
This could be the progression that would begin after the third loss:
2 units, 4 units, 6 units, 8 units, 9 units, 10 units, 11units, 12 units.
When you hit the second payoff anywhere in the series - you drop back one. Then you drop back one on each win. If you miss again before "clearing" the series - you start back up the series from that point.
When you "clear" the series - that is you are profitable by a minimum of three units (the accumulated loss at the point when the series began), you go back to one unit betting.
The following is a possible place bet series:
Lets assume a unit of $20.00
Bet #1 = 1 unit / win pays $3.60
Bet #2 = 1 unit / win pays $4.20
Bet #3 = 1 unit / loss
Bet #4 = 1 unit / loss (remember we are flat betting until 3
losses in a row)
Bet #5 = 1 unit / loss
Bet #6 = 2 units / loss (progression begins here)
Bet #7 = 4 units / win pays $3.00
Bet #8 = 6 units / win pays $3.00
Bet #9 = 4 units / win pays $3.80
Bet #10 = 1 unit / win pays $5.00
This is 6 wins in 10 plays - 60% - which is our projection. The average payoff was $3.76 - which is slightly below the $3.80 projection.
Flat betting that series would have resulted:
10x$20.00 = $200.00 in - out were returns of: $36.00,$42.00,$30.00,$30.00, $38.00 and $50 for a total of $226.00 - a net of $26.00 ROI = +13%
With the progression applied, results were:
in 23 units = $460.00 out were returns of: $36.00,$42.00,$120.00,$180.00,$152.00 and $50 for a total of $580.00 - a net of $120.00 ROI = + 26%
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You might ask, "Why play this place progression and put more of my bankroll at risk when I could just play the horses to win - flat bet a little more and rake in a consistent +21% ROI?"
Good question.
We're not recommending this method of play - it is riskier. Only a few of you might be tempted to give it a whirl.
If the series ran out in a "blue moon" negative streak, the player would stand to lose:
2 units, 4 units, 6 units,8 units, 9 units, 10 units, 11units, 12 units - or 62 units. At $20.00 this would be $1,240.00
For that increased risk, he would likely get a solid increase in bottom line ROI (it happened to double in the example given above) - and he would spread money into the place pool - thus helping protect his win mutuels from the effect of his own wagers.
This would then be another addition to the "portfolio."
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Again - running this kind of progression carries a higher risk of "Gambler's Ruin" - we don't recommend it for everyone.
For those of you who might be interested - the caveat is:You must be very sure of the consistency of your wager hit percentage. This kind of confidence is misplaced if you don't have actual betting results for say, a thousand races!
Tools to help you along your road to race betting success . . .
