|
Horse
Racing Gold
Our philosophy . . .
is that the player cannot hope to make a living or attain "pro" status by betting on favorites and other low paying horses. We're speaking of "win" betting here. The favorites and second favorites definitely must be considered when playing the exotics.Of course, even in "win only" betting, the favorite must be considered - but this consideration isn't whether or not to bet the favorite - but whether or not to
pass the race.
When a race contains more than one legitimate "favorite" (the lowest two or three horses in odds near post time), we recommend passing the race for win betting.
Knowing when the favorite is legitimate is very important - yet even then, identifying the other true contenders going off at higher odds is the key to real profits.
Most horse races are contentious. The number of uncontested, wire-to-wire, daylight winners are few. When horses have shown contending ability and desire in previous races - even when matched against what appears to be a superior horse today - they
can and do win at high odds.
When 3-5 and 4-5 types win, it's often by a nose or a head while being "all out." The place and show finishers may cross the wire in less than the blink of an eye behind the winner - at odds of 10 or 20 to 1. How much qualitative difference was there really between them and the odds-on winner? Very little.Throw in a little racing luck; position, trouble, an unexpected pace scenario, jockey miscalculation, etc. - and - well, that's why 66% of all races are won by non-favorites!
The astute bettor - in contrast to the astute handicapper - is not looking for the best horse!? The idea that there is a "best" horse in today's race can always be argued - that's why there is horse racing!!
In our opinion - and we feel the record of the HRG Index proves that opinion - betting horses that are likely to pay less than double-digit numbers is mostly a waste of time and money.
Many "big names" in racing will advocate betting any overlay. If you put a horse's chances to win at even money, and it's going off at 8-5 , they'll say to bet it - after all, it's a big overlay - right?
To our way of thinking, that's just a weak justification for "chalk chasing."
We at Horse Racing Gold recommend not risking the bankroll on low paying propositions. In fact, if there is only one low odds stand out in a race, we'll usually bet against it regardless of any so-called overlay status.
There are many things that can happen in a horse race.
When the favorite falters for whatever reason - and remember, they do so two-thirds of the time - we stand to collect on other contending horses with value and that that will produce much higher returns.
On the other hand - when a race has 2 or 3 low priced horses that look legit - if one of them falters, one of the others is ready to go on. Again, we avoid these races for win betting.
____________________________________________
Problem: In a race of say, 10 starters with one heavily favored horse - there are still 9 other runners at between 5-2 and 99-1. You can't bet them all.
Successful race betting requires both handicapping and betting skills. It's a decision making process, but the winner must be among the horses you count as contenders. After that, it's not a matter of racking up "chalky" winners by the bunches - it's
a matter of making long term profits.
Example: A player bets 7 races on a 10 race card. He's a favorite bettor and hits 3 winners. A very nice winning percentage of 42.9%. But, his winners paid; $3.20, $4.60 and $5.20. He gets back $13.00 (based on $2.00 wagers) for the $14.00 he put in! That's a 7+% loss.
A racing axiom: Win percentage has nothing to do with profit.
A different player - same track same day: Bets same seven races and even bets two horses in five of those and three horses in two of them. He hits only one winner for a lowly race win percentage of 14.3% (and an even much lower per bet win %). The winner, however, pays $40. This player has $32 in and $40 out for a profit of 25% on the day.
Forget win percentage - concentrate only on Return-On-Investment.
An edge plus volume betting opportunities results in inevitable profits long-term. If a player can maintain an edge of even 14-15% and can get volume plays - a lucrative racing income is assured.
Tools to help you along your road to race betting success . . .
