|
Horse
Racing Gold
Betting Methods:
Base Bet Plus Square Root
This method has been around for about 20 years - maybe longer - and was popularized by James Selvidge. For an in-depth study of the approach, see his book - "Money Management" published by Jacada Publications ( I don't know if it's still available ).
This method can easily be tested in real-time with a small bankroll. Selvidge recommended the base bet be only $1.00 (with multiple "flows" going on simultaneously), but you can use $2.00 or whatever base amount you want.
This method is good for the small bettor. It is a conservative one that allows a steady rise during an average winning series, yet protects hard-earned bankroll profits when a losing streak is encountered after good profits have been accumulated in that series (this quite unlike Kelly and some other methods).
Why not just flat bet? This is a better question than it might at first appear to be. Complex money management formulas often end up with a lower ROI on a series of wagers than just flat betting would have done. The thing is, you need to look at the combination of ROI and total $ gained. Using a flat bet of $2.00, or $20.00 or whatever - if stuck with through a long series of bets, may very well earn a higher ROI while gaining far fewer profit dollars than another money management method.
The BB+SR method in a nutshell: Your next bet is $2.00 ( or whatever base bet you choose) plus the square root of any accumulated profits. No profits? Then the next bet is the base bet amount only. (you'll need a cheepo calculator with SR function)
This method needs "doing" before it becomes clear, so lets do a sample.
The series of bets below were from Horse Racing Gold "Daily Best Bets." These were all the bets for the days listed where the Best Bet horse went off at 3/1 or higher. These are consecutive days and races. This is a very good series. I could have chosen, of course, other days that would have been either better or worse.
Key: bb = base bet, sr = square root, p/l = profit or loss (race and total)
|
date |
win |
pla |
sho |
bb |
s r |
tot bet |
pay |
p/l |
series p/l |
|
|
8/24/03 |
2 |
2 |
x |
-2 |
-2 |
|||||
|
8/24/03 |
2 |
2 |
x |
-2 |
-4 |
|||||
|
8/24/03 |
2 |
2 |
x |
-2 |
-6 |
|||||
|
8/24/03 |
2 |
2 |
x |
-2 |
-8 |
|||||
|
8/24/03 |
2 |
2 |
x |
-2 |
-10 |
|||||
|
8/24/03 |
11.2 |
5.8 |
3.6 |
2 |
2 |
11.2 |
9.2 |
-0.8 |
||
|
8/27/03 |
11 |
4.8 |
3.4 |
2 |
2 |
11 |
9 |
8.8 |
||
|
8/27/03 |
8.6 |
3.9 |
3.6 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
8.6 |
16.5 |
25.3 |
|
|
8/27/03 |
4.6 |
3.7 |
2 |
5 |
7 |
x |
-7 |
18.3 |
||
|
8/27/03 |
4.4 |
3.5 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
x |
-6 |
12.3 |
||
|
8/28/03 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
x |
-6 |
6.3 |
||||
|
8/28/03 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
x |
-5 |
1.3 |
||||
|
8/29/03 |
12.8 |
5.6 |
4.1 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
12.8 |
16.2 |
17.5 |
|
|
8/29/03 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
x |
-6 |
11.5 |
||||
|
8/29/03 |
13 |
6.8 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
13 |
27.5 |
39 |
|
|
8/30/03 |
8.9 |
4.6 |
3.7 |
2 |
6 |
8 |
8.9 |
27.6 |
66.6 |
|
|
8/30/03 |
11.6 |
7.2 |
4.2 |
2 |
8 |
10 |
11.6 |
48 |
114.6 |
|
|
8/31/03 |
2 |
11 |
13 |
x |
-13 |
111.6 |
||||
|
9/1/03 |
8.6 |
4.8 |
3.6 |
2 |
11 |
13 |
8.6 |
42.9 |
154.5 |
|
|
9/4/03 |
11.6 |
3.8 |
2.6 |
2 |
12 |
14 |
11.6 |
67.2 |
221.7 |
|
|
9/5/03 |
2 |
15 |
17 |
x |
-17 |
204.7 |
||||
|
9/6/03 |
2 |
14 |
16 |
x |
-16 |
188.7 |
||||
|
9/6/03 |
2 |
14 |
16 |
x |
-16 |
172.7 |
||||
|
9/7/03 |
4.3 |
2 |
13 |
15 |
x |
-15 |
157.7 |
|||
|
9/7/03 |
9.4 |
5.6 |
3.6 |
2 |
13 |
15 |
9.4 |
55.5 |
213.2 |
|
|
9/7/03 |
9.4 |
4.4 |
3 |
2 |
15 |
17 |
9.4 |
62.9 |
276.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| flat $ in |
52 |
BB+SR |
211 |
|||||||
| flat $ out |
116.1 |
+$64.10 |
487.1 |
+$276.10 | ||||||
| flat ROI |
2.232 |
+123% |
2.308 |
+130% |
As always - You need to test this approach on your reality - on your own historical handicapping and betting records.
Tools to help you along your road to race betting success . . .
Good Luck and Good Wagering!
