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Horse
Racing Gold
The portfolio approach to betting and bankroll management
Have you ever speculated in the stock market? Do you have money "invested" in any money-market funds or retirement account? If you do, then you know the value of, and theory behind, having a portfolio - a "basket" of different stocks, bonds, etc..Spreading both the risk and reward potential over a variety of "plays" puts one in a better position to both survive - withstand adverse moves - and profit.It remains a mystery that folks who are very savvy with the above mentioned types of "investments" and risk management - tend to be so naive in their attempts to make money betting the races.Prolonged losing streaks are a killer. Even if they don't destroy the player's bankroll, they can destroy his confidence - which in turn affects his handicapping and willingness to pull the trigger. It becomes a downward spiral and is the reason many hopeful players eventually give up on ever hoping to profit from race betting.
Okay - so, we've all been there - in the middle of a vicious losing streak - it's inevitable. How can it be reduced - if not eliminated?By spreading the bankroll - spreading the risk.If you are betting medium to high odds contenders - the type the Horse Racing Gold Index picks out - then the reality is that there will be those days when the favorites and other short-odds horses win almost every race. When betting 3 or 4 tracks and 5 or 6 races at each track, a single day's betting could conceivably include 15-24 losing wagers for the win-only bettor.Most players get antsy after 4 or 5 losing races. All players start "talking to themselves" when that runs up to 12-15 and more - I know I do, don't you?Yet the inclusion of a simple exacta method that uses the most logical of the three lowest odds contenders with those longer odds horses could easily have "saved the day."In that miserable day of 15-24 losing races for the win-only bettor, it's extremely likely that 4 or 5 of those higher odds horses ran second. Now if they were at good odds - say 5-1 and higher - even coupled with the "cheapies" at 8-5, 9-5 etc. - the exactas would have paid enough to get the out of the day looking pretty good - i.e. bankroll intact.Avoiding the big draw-down on the bankroll can be crucial for the small bankrolled player.For the well-backed player with a bankroll in the multiple thousands, and who has set himself up with a "back-up" bankroll at least half the size of his active bank - then a different "spreading" approach could be advised._____________________________________________________
There are a few players - the real players - who can remain stoic even during those gruesome adverse runs. They aren't playing with "scared money" - in fact, they aren't playing at all. They are "icemen." They've weathered many relentless losing streaks and were still there to reap the huge profits when the cycle turned and the big scores came rolling in in bunches.If you are that type, the portfolio should spread into higher paying exactas and trifecta methods of play.Everyone has had this happen:You bet two horses in a race - one going off at 7-1 and the other at 9-1 - but neither wins - they are both beaten by a long-odds shipper that pays $48.00 to win. Your 9-1 shot runs second and the luke-warm 5-2 favorite comes struggling into show. Win bet loss - but the exacta pays $240 and the trifecta pays $1,180.If your high-paying exacta method costs you an average of $18-20 dollars per race and your trifecta approach runs $36 a race, that's say $56.00 a race. The winning race earned you $1420 minus the $56 = $1,364.Now divide $1364 by 56 = 24.4. That one winning race will carry you through 23 losing races and you'll still have some profit and be making the next bet with "the track's money."________________________________________________________
A couple of simplified exacta approaches:
I'll assume you're a good handicapper of one of the above types: Large bankroll and able to accept fairly large losses without "freaking" out - or - Small bankroll and easily unnerved when losses begin to mount.I'll also assume you're convinced of the uselessness of "chalk-chasing" and normally make win bets only on legitimate contenders going off at odds of 3-1 or higher.Here are two exacta methods from which to choose - according to your nature - that could open your betting up into an initial portfolio:
Low risk - Lower reward -- Handicap as you normally would.
- Rank the horses and eliminate all but the top six (pass races with fewer than six runners).
- Make your betting decisions as close to post-time as possible.
- Use the lowest odds horse of the top 3 ranked (8-5 as a minimum cut-off) - and box it with any of the remaining five that are at odds of 4-1 or higher.
Higher risk - Higher reward -- Box any of the top five contenders whose combined odds equal 13 -1 or higher at near post-time.
- Include the 6th ranked horse only on the bottom side.
Tools to help you along your road to race betting success . . .
