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Horse
Racing Gold
Track Specificity & Spot Plays
There is one giant problem with generalized racing systems and methods - they do not and can not work across all tracks, race types, odds and conditions. Trying to come up with one that does is an exercise in futility, yet it seems to be an underlying hope - the subconscious "holy grail" of most handicapping research.
Very simply:
*What works at Timonium very likely doesn't work at all
at Santa Anita -
*A handicapping factor that is hot at Saratoga is ice at Charles Town -
*A race passing rule that is viable at Fairgrounds might pass almost every winner at Lone Star -and so it goes.
Also, money management, as it is related to the flow of wagering, is another factor that has its own unique "footprint" at each track. At certain tracks, late tote action on a horse is a good sign - even a necessary sign. At other tracks that same kind of action can be all but meaningless. A long-odds method may catch a fair number of 10/1 to 20/1 horses at track "A" - yet at track "B" winners at higher than 7 or 8 to 1 are as rare as hen's teeth.
So - what to do?
Well, unfortunately, that bane of most less-than-committed horse player types rears its ugly head . . . Record Keeping!
Testing of handicapping factors over long periods of time at multiple tracks and keeping exacting and exhaustive records of those tests is a must. Then tweaking and re-testing for another long period is required. And - by "long period" I mean at least two meetings at the same track at the same time of year.
"Egads!" I hear some of you saying - but this is exactly the kind of thing that can make the difference between becoming a professional player or remaining forever a "wannabe."
Narrowing in on the very positive betting niches is greatly rewarded. If the handicapping method you follow is getting you an ROI of say 11% as a blanket approach - you can be sure there are "sub-categories" within your betting that are triple that - and more!
The term "spot play" is often used for an approach like this. There are scores of spot plays that have been uncovered and published by astute handicappers. The study and application of those (or modifications of those) to your own handicapping and betting would very likely give your bottom line an immediate boost.
But - even those are almost always applied in a general way across all tracks. To really unearth the "gold," you've got to do some mining yourself.
It does not matter whether you use a unique handicapping and wagering method completely formulated by you alone - or you use a handicapping service like Horse Racing Gold - your actual results will be unique to you.
Researchers in Experimental Physics have postulated that any and every event - every experiment (read, "handicapping results") - is affected and changed by the observer or tester himself - merely by the fact of the observing.
So - your handicapping and betting record is always uniquely yours.
You therefore have the possibilities before you of searching out and finding exceptionally profitable "soft spots" from among the whole history of your betting - spot plays that no one else will have.
Maybe it's something so narrow as 'maiden claiming races in the mud at Charles Town.' I don't know - but I know they are there: Obscure profit niches are there - waiting for you to break out the pick and shovel and dig in there to discover them.
One important note - all things are cyclical. There is nothing permanent in Nature nor in handicapping and race betting. You will find positive factors, so run with them - until they turn. Then don't hesitate to get off what has been a winning factor/spot play if and when it goes flat. Just replace it with the next most valuable nugget you've unearthed with your research.
Maybe the best advice for finding "handicapping gold" is,
Go where the stream hasn't already been panned out!
Tools to help you along your road to race betting success . . .
