Here is a series of 10 horse
race wagers:
loss,
loss, loss, loss, $9.00, $10.00, loss, loss, loss, loss.
Flat betting $2.00 each time, you've got $20 in and $19 out for a loss of
5%.Betting a straight two horse $2.00 parlay - you've only got
$18 in - but $45.00 back out for an ROI of +150% !
Okay - but don't run out and tap the savings account just
yet. The order of wins and losses becomes crucial in parlays.
Move either of the above two wins by one race and you'd miss the parlay
and have a 100% loss!
Just as parlays can turn a flat bet losing series into a
winning one - they can turn flat bet winning series into a losing one.
Here is another series of 10 races:
loss,
8.00, loss, $10.00, loss, $12.00, loss, loss, loss, loss.
Flat betting $2.00 = $20 in, $30 out for an ROI of +50%
Straight 2 horse parlay - $18 in, $0 out for and ROI of -100%
Yet, a different parlay betting
approach - the "round robin" can gain great profits on the same
(above) series.
A "round robin" attempts to catch all possible
parlays occurring in any given multi-race series. In a 10 race
series, the bettor would start with 9 $2.00 bets, then 8 $2.00 bets
etc. as follows for the above series:
race 1 - bet $18 = loss
race 2 - bet $16 -
pays $8.00 = return $64.00
race 3 - bet $14 + $8 = loss
race 4 - bet $12 + $8 -
pays $10.00 = return $100.00
race 5 - bet $10 + $8 + $10 -
loss
race 6 - bet $8 + $8 + $10 - pays $12.00 = return $156
race 7 - bet $6 + $8 + $10 + $12 =
loss
race 8 - bet $4 + $8 + $10 + $12 = loss
race 9 - bet $2 + $8 + $10 + $12 = loss
race 10 - bet $0 + $8 + $10 + $12 = loss
Total of all bets = $262 in
Total out = $320 for a good ROI of +22%
Or is it a +22% ROI on this series of horse
race bets?
No, not really.
If you bet $100 on a pick six that you win and pays $800 -
what's your ROI? Isn't it 800 divided by 100 for +700% profit? Or,
let's say you bet a $2.00 daily double that pays off at $16.00 - what's
your ROI? Isn't it 16 divided by 2 for +700% profit?
Parlays should be figured exactly as any other multi-race
wager. In the above example, the total risk capital was only that amount
which was started each race:
18+16+14+12+10+8+6+4+2 = $90
So we had $320 total out on $262 total bet for a net of +$58.00
$58 profit on $90 risked is an actual ROI of
+64.4%
The mistake made by players
attempting to run parlays - is the same old mistake players are forever
making . . .
Needing lots of wins to bolster their egos and verify
their handicapping skills, they parlay low priced figure horses.
Most often their parlay approach isn't even planned -
it's a craps shooter's mentality - "press it up."
An example would be a player who hits say a 9-5 winner
for a $20 wager - his return around $57.00 - and he decides on the spur of
the moment to parlay it all onto the next race where he's got another good
looking figure horse going off at 2-1. He hits it at say $6.40 and
gets a $182 return. Great! He feels really good about his
"score" - decides to stop while he's way ahead and go home with
his good profit.
The ROI was an incredible +812% - I mean, that is
incredible - right?
Well - yes, but there was this other guy who played the
same day and had run a mere $2.00 five race parlay series. He had
set his minimum acceptable odds at 7-1 and proceeded to smoke out the best
contender in each race that qualified at those odds. He had his
simple betting tables all laid out on a betting sheet so he could keep
good and accurate records of his wagers and results - in other words, he
had a betting plan.
The results of his horse race betting parlay campaign looked like this:
race 1 - bet $8 = loss
race 2 - bet $6 -
pays $19.80 = return $59.40
race 3 - pass, no decent qualifier
race 4 - bet $4 + $20 (19.80 rounded up) - ( this was the race
our other player won at $5.70) = loss
race 5 - bet $2 + $20 =
loss (this was the $6.40 winner that
completed our other player's parlay)
race 6 - pass, no decent qualifiers
race 7 - bet $0 + $20 -
pays $37.80 = return $378 (this
is bet #5 and
completes the series)
So player #2 has risked $8+6+4+2 = the same $20 as player
#1, yet he has a total of $80 bet and $431.40 out for a net of $357.4.
As put forth in the
previous article, Horse Racing Gold advocates the portfolio method of
horse betting and money management.
There is no "fantasy-world" perfect horse race betting system, or money management
plan. They just don't exist. Serious wagering
requires a bankroll, patience, self-confidence and nerve.
Parlay betting separates the men from the boys (and the
women from the girls!). . .
No sweet little old grandmothers allowed!
It takes a certain kind of race bettor to be able to have just
cashed a good paying ticket, yet be willing to risk that "bird in the
hand" profit looking for the really big profits "in the
bush."
