This article is a semi-rambling revisit
to an old topic that is ongoing in horse race betting circles:
Is it better to bet win-only,
or is it better to bet the exotics as well (or exclusively)?
To begin with - it is difficult to make
"true" value plays intelligently into blind pools.
As I've written before, the unseen
betting pools like the trifecta, superfecta and all multi-race wagers - are
often more skewed (and thus likely to contain value plays) than the
accessible pools like the w-p-s and exacta.
But - because it is impossible to know for
sure where the overlays are in those hidden pools, it's a hit-and-miss game trying
to nail the combinations that will pay more than they should, and avoid the
ones that will pay less than they should.
The exacta is it's own animal - it's the
"people's bet." All bettors like to take a stab at the
exacta. It doesn't require a lot of money to do so, and, for most
players, the losing streaks aren't too long. This because they use the
favorite in their combinations, and the favorite comes in the exacta 60-65%
of the time. The trouble is - these payoffs with the favorite included are
predominantly under-lays and don't offer any long-term profit potential.
The fact is that the public is quite adept at
estimating the potential of a horse to win a race. This is why the
final odds are actually very accurate predictors of the outcomes of horse races. The
second favorite will win more often than the third favorite and 3/1 horses
will win more often than 4/1 horses - etc.. This is speaking generally
and over the long-term. In any particular race, of course, the
public's odds can be all over the place, and anything but accurate.
So - back to the original
question: Is
it better for the average horse bettor to bet to win only - or to also wager
in the exotics?
It has been said,
"If you can't make a
profit flat-betting to win, you won't be able to make a profit betting the
exotics either."
I don't agree with this for reasons discussed
elsewhere - but let's focus on a different aspect of why win-only betting
might be best for many handicappers.
It goes back to the idea of
"self-confidence." A decent handicapper who bets horses
primarily in the odds range of 5/2 to 10/1 should be able to maintain a hit
rate for win betting high enough (20-30%) that extremely long losing streaks
will be rare. In contrast, that same player when betting the trifecta and
superfecta had better be ready for some potentially quite serious losing
streaks.
Going after the tri and/or super then,
requires a particular type of personality - one for which losing streaks are
not all that nerve-wracking and don't adversely affect daily play. It also
requires a much larger bankroll.
Win betting (also place and show betting -
i.e the "straight" pools) has historically been - and
still is - appropriate for the majority of players.
When betting horse racing, what is the best approach
for win-only
betting? The following is my take on it:
*Do not bet on low odds
horses!
*Bet for value.
I can't emphasize this enough. I
recommend rarely ever betting on a horse at less than 3/1. On the
other end, betting horses over 10 or 12/1 should be a fairly rare occurrence
as well.
As a way of maintaining a higher hit rate,
preserving self confidence, and ameliorating losing streaks - I'd also
recommend betting two horses per race as a standard approach. Not
every race of course - there will be races where a single horse makes
sense, and others where betting three horses makes sense.
If betting two horses - keep the required
*profit* return at 2/1 minimum - for both horses combined. This will
often require dutching your wagers.
Example: Say the two horses you want to
bet are at 5/2 and 7/2 at near post-time. Say you're going to bet $4.00. The return would be somewhere between $7.00 and
$9.80. A 2/1 profit on your initial $4 wager would need a $8 -
or a $12
return. You cannot bet these two horses and get that.
Below are the minimums, and dutching splits
needed to maintain this approximate 2/1 profit requirement:
3/1 needs 8/1 dutch 70/30
7/2 needs 7/1 dutch 65/35
4/1 needs 6/1 dutch 60/40
9/2 needs 5/1 dutch 55/45
For odds higher than those, if they are far
apart - like 4/1 and 9/1 - you can dutch 60/40. If they are close
together - like 6/1 and 7/1 - you can just split the wager evenly. For
any of these - close estimations are fine - no need to get exact here -
especially when you might get shut out from a last second wager while
fiddling with the math.
Another guideline -
don't buck the apparent monster horse.
If you have a horse rated on top and it's going at 4/5 or less - best to
just pass the race. Along this same line - never fight against two low
odds horses: Say your top two ranked contenders are going off at 8/5
and 2/1 - another definite passing situation.
A last general point for
horse betting: If your
win betting is profitable and hits at a good percentage - and you want to
take a shot at building your bankroll at an accelerated rate - very often place
and show betting parlays will also be profitable. Other articles explore
the various parlay approaches.
To acquire a profitable method/s for
any and all parts of your portfolio of horse betting approaches - go
here:
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