"Place and Show
Betting"
I remember reading somewhere in one of the
late, great Huey Mahl's writings - where he was quoting one of his mentors
(Lou Holloway was it??) - that (to paraphrase) "the best bet in racing is a
bet to place on a super solid horse that fits the race, and looks set to run
his best today."
In the current race-betting world of exotics
up-the-kazoo - exotic bets of every imaginable kind - the 'lowly' place and show bets have
all but been forgotten. 'Bragging rights' type bettors (which, really,
make up the largest percentage) have relegated these wagers to the level of little old
grandmothers, or newbies trying to cash a ticket - any ticket!
Place and show wagers aren't glamorous,
or flashy; however, I think a re-evaluation of place and show betting is long
overdue.
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There are a couple of factors that play a
significant part in deciding whether or not place and show betting is a good
fit for you;
1. Do you play where rebates are offered?
2. Are you in the game for the long-term, and are stable profits and
low-risk of prime concern to you?
The remainder of this discussion will assume
that at least #2 above is true.
Betting place and show is obviously less risky
than win betting, and will get you a much higher hit rate. The other side of the
coin is that in order to make it profitable - you definitely need to
maintain that very high hit rate - and at the same time stay away from the minus-pool type
payoffs of $2.10 and $2.20.
As well, in order to get your wagers up high
enough to garner significant profit levels, you'll need to restrict yourself to major tracks on major circuits (or the special big-name stakes race
days at the smaller tracks) where the pool size will support higher wager
amounts without payouts being much affected.
In order to get to these bet
levels, and because the hit rate can be maintained (if you are sharp) at a
much higher level - a player should be willing to accept a bit more risk, and
can incorporate parlays and/or mild progressions into their money-management
approach.
But - this does not mean one can get sloppy
with the bankroll. Protecting the bankroll is still - and always - the #1
concern.
When wagering on lower odds horses in the back
slots, a relatively short collection of historical data (of your own betting)
will serve to provide close and adequately accurate projections of what you
can expect. With payoffs from $2.80 to $6.00 (according to
whether place or show betting), a test of a couple hundred races will be solid
enough for predicting what to expect long-term.
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Even though the tracks seem to be offering
every kind of bet imaginable, they still don't offer place and show Pick 3s,
or Pick 4s etc.. Even if they did, you'd be stuck with the currently
less-than-acceptable rules for where your money goes when a scratch occurs
after the series has started.
Place and show parlays put you back in
control - you choose the races you want to play (you don't have to accept the
tracks pre-defined series of races) - and you can modify the wager even after
you are into the series.
It's likely that some of you are already
serious place and show bettors. Several have gone through our
Handicapping Gold module series and discovered little-known and super-solid
place betting methods. Others have purchased, Show Me The Money,
and/ or the P-3+ software,
and are
earning consistent profits with that. For the rest of you - even if you
don't currently bet place and show - there are circumstances where it can
save your game!
Have you ever been in a losing streak?!
Duh! . . . Sure, we all have. The bankroll declines, the psyche is
negatively affected, decision making goes out of whack, second guessing
begins, the whole "black snowball" effect starts to exert itself.
There is no better way to break this ugly cycle
- and quickly - than to drop back to place and show betting for awhile.
You immediately start cashing tickets, things begin to look a bit rosier right
away, a couple of good 3 or 4 race parlays changes the ebbing of the bankroll,
and voila! - You've successfully short-circuited what might have become a very
bad and lengthy down-turn if you'd stuck with win and exotics betting.
What kind of horse should you bet to place or
show?
If you're running parlays and/or progressions,
you do not want to risk higher-odds horses very often. You really need
to set some tight filters, and demand that your prospective wager horse passes
through those filters. Remember, the hit rate is crucial, so you just don't want
to mess around too much with horses you 'hope' will run well, but that need to
overcome obvious negatives.
As well, your choice still needs to return a
decent price in the place or show slot. You don't want to be on the
glaringly obvious figure horse that will go off at 2/5, or 1/2 or so.
You should develop a profile
for specific race types - and of the horses who have all the best going for
them in today's race. You want super-solid types that, barring
unforeseen racing luck, won't often disappoint when given today's conditions
and probable pace scenario.
