Lay Betting definition: Betting against a horse, i.e. betting a horse
will lose (laying the odds - fading another bettor).
Lay betting is a fairly new concept
in horse race betting. The pari-mutuel
system of horse race betting in America has created a "best horse" mindset, and trying to figure out
who will win a race is almost every players primary concern.
The traditional (and legal) book-making system
in the UK and elsewhere has given them a slightly different point-of-view, so
lay betting has become well-established there.
And no wonder - the advantages to the player
are substantial.
Over three years ago in our e-book, "Racing
Exchange Gold," we predicted that the betting exchanges (where lay-betting
is offered) would be the future of horse racing betting. That future has been
somewhat slow to come to North America, though it has taken the rest of the
world by storm. The liquidity (amount of money offered to back and lay
horses in U.S. races) has grown steadily - even dramatically at some exchanges
- during that time.
What are the advantages of lay-betting?
Think about it: If you have no
solid opinion about who has a good chance to win the race, but because of the pace situation,
conditions of the race, conditioning cycle (or whatever)
- you feel that a particular horse has an extremely poor chance of winning the race - you
can bet that horse will lose . . .
This allows you
the
opportunity to make value wagers in races that you previously had to pass.
Or the other side of the
coin, say you feel strongly that a certain solid contender will win -
you can now bet him to win, and one or two other over-bet horses to
lose. . . .
This
increases your leverage in a "strong
opinion" race.
Best of all:
Say you bet a
horse $20 to win at 4/1 (at the exchanges, you "lock in" your odds at the
moment you bet) early in the betting, then
that horse drops to 2/1 near post. You can now bet against him - lay bet
- at 2/1
for $20. If he wins and pays $10 - you make $60 profit (your 4/1 $80
minus the $20 lay bet). If he loses, you break even (your $20 lay bet
covers your $20 win loss) . . .
This creates
a hedge that
protects your win bet and essentially creates a "no-lose" situation.
Another important
aspect of lay-betting has to do with the player's psyche.
As we've discussed many times in past writings,
the mental attitude of the horse race bettor is all-important. Nothing improves a
bettor's attitude more than cashing tickets! If a
horse player always feels that he has a big shot to cash a ticket in the next race, optimism is there and the
attitude stays positive.
Favorites win at only about a 34% clip.
Betting on selected favorites, a win percentage of 38-39% would be good.
But that still means losing 62 out of every 100 races - hardly conducive to
maintaining confidence that the next race will be a winner. The
sub-conscious of the bettor will start reinforcing the idea that almost 2 of every 3 wagers
will lose.
Since what we think creates our reality, that
race player has now
created a "losing reality" - and if he doesn't have the fortitude of
his convictions - his bottom-line will become even worse than
it would/should have been.
Now - what would lay-betting do for that
player's mental attitude?
It is the mirror image of
the above - only better. The
bettor could now win 66 out of every 100 wagers simply by betting against
all the favorites! That approach still wouldn't be profitable used in such
a generalized manner.
But - by
using a different logic and not searching for the best "win pick" -
but rather by betting against selected weak runners - it is very easy to immediately get the
strike rate up near the 75% level.
At that point, the sub-conscious notes that 3
of every 4 tickets are now being cashed and it begins to expect to cash the next
wager because this is predominantly true.
A new "winning reality"
emerges. As this new horse betting reality manifests, the hit rate will continue to rise a
bit as the positive mental attitude of the bettor solidifies. It is then fairly easy
to get the strike rate into the 80% + range.
When you bet on one horse in a
race to lose - you have every other horse in that race running for you!
Racing luck - which plays such a large part in
regular horse race betting - become essentially a non-factor when lay-betting.
Rather than so often seeming to work against you - it now usually helps you!
If the horse that you have bet against misses the break, or gets
bottled up in deep stretch, or gets bumped or carried out on the turn -
whatever - well, good!
Lay-betting really does kind of turn the whole
game on its head . . .
- Rather than cheering on
one horse - you are
cheering on all but one horse.
- Instead of fearing trouble happening to
your "pick" - you are not concerned with troublesome racing luck at all.
- Unlike handicapping for all the nuances of
pace, class, conditioning, etc. for each horse in the race, you are
only looking for one or two horses that will likely be much less competitive
(for whatever reason) than their odds will indicate - i.e. horses likely to
lose.
It all becomes so much simpler; however, you
do have to "put on another hat," and re-arrange your thinking a bit.
For instance: if you bet against all 30/1
shots, it would be common to have long winning streaks (that is - these horses
will most often lose - thus you are cashing your lay-bet tickets) of 20 and
more in-a-row. But - when one of these guys wins - you really get bit in
the butt - and hard! Remember that in lay-betting, your winning wagers
get you even money, while your losing wagers require paying out at whatever
odds the horse was at when you bet it (odds are "locked in" at the moment you
make the wager at the exchanges).
In the above example: Say you bet $20 in every
race and hit 25 races in-a-row without a losing bet. You would have
collected $500 (minus the approximate 3% exchange commission fees). Now
- say that on the 26th bet the 30/1 shot won the race and paid $62. You
would now have to pay out $620 - negating all your 25 race win streak - and
more!
We recommend never lay-betting a horse at
higher than 5/1 (5/2 if you are the conservative type).
But - if you bet against only low-odds
favorites, while never being stung badly, your strike rate will be
somewhat low because the favorites will win more often than other, higher odds
runners. Even if your weak favorites only win at a 27% clip (7% worse than
the average) - you can only have a 73% strike rate.
If you allow for just a bit more risk and wager
against some 3/1 to 5/1 types, your hit percentage will rise accordingly.
In the past, we have always been careful to
maintain that horse race betting is not an "investment." Other
less-than-scrupulous "system sellers" and "method peddlers" have used the term
loosely - claiming that by using their approach it would make betting at the
races like investing (b.s. !!).
Race betting has always been inherently risky -
but when lay-betting select weak contenders, it can become a very
low-risk situation - to which the word "investment" might actually apply.
"False favorite" handicapping techniques have
been presented in various of our articles and e-books, so we won't rehash
those ideas here. However . . .
To acquire profitable unique method/s
for any and all parts of your portfolio of horse betting approaches -
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