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Class Drops
First - this horse
handicapping article will not go into
depth on the theory of "class" and what it is, or how to define
it.
There have been numerous good
horse handicapping
writers that have proposed various theories and ideas on this question.
Needless to say, there is not a consensus on the subject. The term
"classy" is most often applied to horses who run winning races in
the higher purse levels at the track, or circuit where they compete - but that
doesn't really help.
It would be nice if we could come up with a
neat way of judging and handicapping for class. The reality of the situation though is often
puzzling.
Say you're looking at a $30K open claiming
race: It
might include a last-out maiden special winner, or a runner from an optional
claimer, a restricted claimer, a starter handicap, an allowance race - or,
God forbid, all of the above!
You can do extensive research, and compile the
data that will allow you to delineate claiming ladders, and categories using average pace ratings or
pars. I certainly applaud that kind of research and do some of it myself.
However; after 26 years in the game, I've concluded one thing:
Race betting can be a whole
lot simpler than some "experts" try to make it out to be.
So, as I said, I'm not going to
try and solve this class-handicapping puzzle. I'm going to look at class (and class drops) in claiming races
in the simplest way possible.
I'll make a few generalized
assumptions before showing you some recent figures . . .
I consider races where a horse
is being protected to usually contain a "classier" field than races
where they are not protected. Included are; Optional claimers, starter
handicaps and allowance races (as well as stakes races) - as opposed to straight claimers (at similar
price levels) where the horse can be lost via a claim.
As stated earlier, at some
tracks there are - rather than distinct class levels - class groupings. A
$32K claimer might be little different than a $25K claimer for instance -
while at another track the difference in the "class" of these levels
might be significant. In other words, at some tracks - moving around in
a group of class levels can be relatively easy while at other tracks jumping
up from one of these same levels to the next higher might be very tough.
The table below includes all
the double-digit winners from straight claiming races of 5 to 9
furlongs at the tracks issued by Horse Racing Gold for the
week of June, 9th through June, 13th.
"Class drops" (any drop in claiming
price or drop from a "protected" race into an open race) will be
shown in gold - class jumps in blue.
(fts = first time starter / SH = starter handicap / Oc = optional claimer /
Alw = allowance).
|
Date |
Track |
race
# |
last
race class level |
today's
race level |
win
price |
| 6/9 |
cd |
5 |
fts |
Mc 15K |
$34.60 |
| |
" |
8 |
50K |
30K |
$12.60 |
| |
" |
10 |
Mdn |
Mc 15K |
$10.60 |
| |
bel |
6 |
Mc 40 |
Mc 40 |
$20.20 |
| |
" |
9 |
75K |
50K |
$11.80 |
| |
bm |
1 |
12.5K |
12.5K |
$10.60 |
| |
" |
8 |
25K |
12.5K |
$11.80 |
| |
hol |
5 |
Mdn |
Mc 40 |
$13.00 |
| |
" |
6 |
50K |
50K |
$10.00 |
| |
mon |
2 |
Mc25K |
Mc 50K |
$17.00 |
| |
wo |
6 |
40K |
20K |
$13.80 |
| 6/10 |
bel |
1 |
Mdn |
Mc 40K |
$13.80 |
| |
" |
2 |
35K |
35K |
$14.20 |
| |
" |
5 |
50K |
50K |
$12.40 |
| |
cd |
1 |
8K |
8K |
$14.80 |
| |
" |
7 |
Mc 20 |
Mc 15 |
$31.80 |
| |
hol |
4 |
32K |
40K |
$10.00 |
| |
lad |
6 |
Mdn |
Mc 12.5 |
$10.60 |
| |
mon |
3 |
SH |
16.K |
$10.00 |
| |
" |
4 |
Mdn |
Mc 22 |
$15.40 |
| |
" |
6 |
10K |
10K |
$23.60 |
| |
wo |
2 |
40K |
20K |
$31.70 |
| |
" |
4 |
32K |
20K |
$26.50 |
| 6/11 |
bel |
1 |
Mc 45 |
Mc 35 |
$18.80 |
| |
bm |
3 |
Oc 16 |
12.5K |
$11.40 |
| |
cd |
2 |
20K |
20 K |
$10.20 |
| |
" |
3 |
25 K |
15 K |
$10.20 |
| |
" |
7 |
30 K |
30 K |
$37.00 |
| |
" |
8 |
Mc 10K |
Mc 12.5K |
$26.40 |
| |
" |
10 |
Mc 15 |
Mc 15 |
$10.20 |
| |
crc |
4 |
6.25K |
6.25 K |
$17.20 |
| |
" |
8 |
Oc 16 K |
16 K |
$13.40 |
| |
hol |
1 |
Mc 40 |
Mc 32 |
$10.20 |
| |
" |
4 |
32 K |
25 K |
$23.20 |
| |
" |
6 |
Mc 40 |
Mc 25 |
$17.60 |
| |
" |
8 |
12.5 K |
10 K |
$15.60 |
| |
mon |
1 |
Mdn |
Mc 16 |
$17.80 |
| |
" |
3 |
Mc 16 K |
16 K |
$13.60 |
| |
wo |
7 |
80 K |
40 K |
$25.60 |
| 6/12 |
mon |
|
20 K |
20 K |
$17.80 |
| |
" |
|
50 K |
35 K |
$10.40 |
| |
bm |
|
10 K |
10 K |
$31.00 |
| |
crc |
|
10 K |
10 K |
$52.00 |
| |
" |
|
25 K |
10 K |
$78.00 |
| |
bel |
|
35 K |
35 K |
$18.60 |
| |
hol |
|
Fts |
Mc 40 |
$27.60 |
| |
" |
|
16 K |
16 K |
$14.60 |
| 6/13 |
bel |
|
20 K |
25 K |
$15.80 |
| |
" |
|
20 K |
25 K |
$12.80 |
| |
" |
|
Alw |
40 K |
$11.80 |
| |
crc |
|
16 K |
10 K |
$42.00 |
| |
" |
|
6.25 K |
5 K |
$19.00 |
| |
" |
|
12.5 K |
10 K |
$10.60 |
| |
" |
|
Alw |
40 K |
$11.00 |
| |
" |
|
25 K |
25 K |
$13.20 |
| |
cd |
|
10 K |
15 K |
$17.00 |
| |
" |
|
Mc 15 K |
Mc 15 K |
$86.40 |
| |
bm |
|
Mc 12.5 K |
Mc 8 K |
$10.20 |
| |
" |
|
Mc 32 K |
Mc 32 K |
$14.60 |
| |
" |
|
Mc 32 K |
Mc 16 K |
$14.00 |
| |
" |
|
40 K |
20 K |
$15.80 |
| |
hol |
|
Stakes |
40 K |
$19.80 |
| |
" |
|
50 K |
40 K |
$15.00 |
| |
" |
|
fts |
Mc 25 |
$18.60 |
Results: There were 64 double-digit
winners during this one week's span at these tracks.
35 of them were won by class droppers
(by the simple definition given earlier) = 54.7%
18 were won by horses staying at the same class level = 28.1%
Only 7 were won by horses rising in class = 10.9%
|
I've presented this short research only to make a generalized point:
If
you're handicapping for "price horses" - class droppers should be given extra
consideration.
(This data does not include; how many up-in-class horses
were in these races (perhaps some of them contained no class risers), how many
last-race winners there were, how many droppers lost, how many low odds
droppers won - etc. etc..)
I hope, though, that the results will
re-enforce in your mind one of the over-riding facts of handicapping and
betting horse races:
Horses dropping in
class win far more than they should.
Jim Quinn gave this figure in 1983,
"Horses dropping by 30% or more win 378% of their rightful share of
races!"
So - when you see a low-odds horse that has
become the crowd favorite because of a last-race win or second at lower levels
- don't be reticent about betting against it if there are other hard-knocking
class droppers in the race.
|
Horse Handicapping Articles
(click to view/read)
Horse
Handicapping 1
(making a betting line)
Horse
Handicapping 2
(success and luck)
Horse
Handicapping 3
(turn time, the hidden fraction)
Horse
Handicapping 4
(track specific spot plays)
Horse
Handicapping 5
(finding false favorites)
Horse
Handicapping 6
(advantaged spot plays)
Horse
Handicapping 7
(Finding Class Drops) |
