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"Finding False Favorites" as a PDF file
Finding False Favorites
Let's get into the general
horse handicapping factors that will point out weakness in
an over-bet crowd favorite. I'll group these factors under five
headings:
-
The ability of the trainer
-
The ability of the jockey
-
The ability of the horse
-
The current form of the horse
-
Miscellaneous factors
Trainer ability:
The obvious first "look" is to see if
the trainer has any
ability!
Trainers whose horses win at an over-all percentage
of 6% or less are prime go-against candidates.
Winning across all odds at these low rates (assuming he has sent
out runners in at least 20 races) means a bettor would really need
about 14 or 15-1 on these guy's horses in order to consider it a
fair bet. How poor a wager then if his horse is going
favored!
Don't use the horse
handicapping factors in this article in isolation - any
trainer can send out a horse capable of winning a given race - but
let's set these low % trainers' runners aside as potential "false
favorites."
Also, a trainer with more average
looking over-all win figures - say 10-12% - can still be very weak in
certain areas: turf races, 1st after a claim, 1st time starters, 1st after
a lay-off, etc.. You should look further into the trainers records -
past just his cumulative totals.
Jockey
ability:
I don't put as much emphasis here unless the
jock is one of those so-called "no win" types at the
circuit. If his or her record is extremely poor - say 4% or less
(over 50 races), then yes - I'll demote any horse ridden by that jock.
Horse
ability:
This
handicapping category should, of course, get the most
scrutiny. The BIG question you ask yourself is always:
Can this horse be expected to
compete well enough to deserve favoritism in today's race?
Very
often the answer is "no" - from a resounding, "no way in
hell" - to a not so sure "probably not."
What should you
look for in order to deftly place the horse somewhere in that range?
First
- its par times / ability times / power, or pace ratings / etc.
If
you use a computer program to crunch raw data into some type of final
rating - and you have chosen a good and representative race from which to
enter the data (that is, you've avoided the "garbage in - garbage
out" problem) then any favorite that rates poorly in those numbers
should be considered as a potentially weak favorite.
When a
horse has shown that it can't or won't run to the pars, or pace demands of
today's race - how could it possibly be considered for favoritism?
A
response might be, "But what if they're all a bunch of nags and
none of 'em can run?"
Okay - then you have
what's been termed a "chaos" race - hard to figure, hard to
handicap, and hard to predict. In that kind of race where every runner is
weak, the favorite becomes a solid bet-against candidate if:
Current
Form:
A horse may have the potential ability, or back class to
be able to trounce today's field - IF - it is at the point in its
condition cycle that will allow a top performance.
Again, this is
often not the case, yet maybe because it is a "high profile" horse
with a top jock or trainer, and it has some sparkling performances in past races,
it will go favored today regardless of its readiness.
A
lot has been written and discussed - and used and abused - when it comes
to identifying, and getting a handle on a horses' current form.
Formerly, any kind of layoff of over a month for cheap to mid-level
claimers was looked at in a negative way.
Racing
has changed.
Horses can and are being given longer breaks
away from racing - then coming back fresh and in condition to run
well. William Scott published a couple of handicapping books in the
early 80's that put forth some pretty good guidelines that still hold (more-or-less)
today.
Here's a gross simplification of his extensive
research . . .
A favorite (or any other horse) can be coming off a layoff -
even one as long as 6 months - and still be legitimate if it has worked
5 furlongs within the last 14 days.
