Track Specific Spot Plays
There is one problem with generalized
racing systems, and horse handicapping methods - they do not, and cannot work across all tracks,
race types, odds and conditions.
Trying to come up with one that does is
an exercise in futility, yet it seems to be an underlying hope - the
subconscious "holy grail" of most horse handicapping research.
Very simply:
*What works at Hawthorne very likely
doesn't work at all at Santa Anita -
*A handicapping factor that is hot at Saratoga is ice at Charles Town
-
*A race passing rule that is viable at Fairgrounds might pass almost
every winner at Lone Star - and so it goes.
Also, money management, as it is related to the
flow of wagering, is another factor that has its own unique
"footprint" at each track.
At certain tracks, late tote action
on a horse is a good sign - even a necessary sign. At other tracks that
same kind of action can be all but meaningless. A long-odds method may
catch a fair number of 10/1 to 20/1 horses at track "A" - yet at track
"B" winners at higher than 7 or 8 to 1 are as rare as hen's teeth.
So - what to do?
Well, unfortunately, that bane of
less-than-committed horse player types rears its ugly head . . . record keeping!
The testing of horse handicapping factors over long periods
of time at multiple tracks, and keeping exacting and exhaustive records of those
tests is a must. Then tweaking, and re-testing for another long period is
required. And - by "long period" I mean at least two meetings at
the same track at the same time of year.
"Egads!" I hear some of
you saying - but this is exactly the kind of thing that can make the difference
between becoming a professional handicapper, or remaining forever a
"wannabe."
Narrowing in on the very positive betting niches
is greatly rewarded. If the horse handicapping method you follow is getting you
an ROI of say 11% as a blanket approach - you can be sure there are
"sub-categories" within your betting that are triple that - and more!
The term "spot play" is often used for
an approach like this. There are scores of spot plays that have been
uncovered, and published by astute handicappers. The study, and application
of those (or modifications of those) to your own handicapping and betting would
very likely give your bottom line an immediate boost.
But - even those are almost always applied in a
general way across all tracks. To really unearth the
"gold," you've got to do some mining yourself. Your actual results
are unique to you - and you need to know what those unique aspects are.
Researchers in Experimental Physics have
postulated that any and every event - every experiment (read, "handicapping
results") - is affected and changed by the observer or tester himself -
merely by the fact of the observing.
So your handicapping and betting record is
always - and will always be - uniquely your own.
You therefore have the possibility before you
of searching out and finding exceptionally profitable "sweet spots"
from among the whole history of your handicapping and betting - spot plays that no one else
will have.
Maybe it's something so narrow as 'maiden
claiming races in the mud at Charles Town.' I don't know - but I know they
are there: Obscure profit niches - waiting for you to break out the
pick and shovel, and dig in there to discover them.
One important note - all things are
cyclical. There is nothing permanent in Nature, nor in horse handicapping.
You will find positive factors, so run with them -
until
they turn. Then don't hesitate to get off what has been a winning
factor/spot play if and when it goes flat. Just replace it with the next
most valuable nugget you've unearthed with your research.
Handicapping is like hunting for
treasure:
Having a genuine treasure map is exceedingly helpful!
At
Horse
Racing Gold
our
own research is ongoing and relentless. We release various profitable spot
plays and methods - and some of them are real nuggets:
our
products
Maybe the best advice for finding "handicapping
gold" is,
"Go where the stream
hasn't already been panned out!"
