Download
"Advantaged Spot Plays" as a PDF file
"Advantaged Spot
Plays"
Wouldn't it be great if - instead
of horse handicappers - we were all
'horse-whisperers' - or at least had a horse psychic hot-line we could call up
before each race?!
Seriously though, knowing the psychology of a horse
and what's in it's head . . . now that would be fascinating - and extremely
profitable.
Horses are such impressionable and sensitive animals, and
they mature and learn so rapidly. How can we use this fact in our horse
handicapping to make some
smart wagers?
I gave a spot-play method in one
of the other articles that has worked
for decades and continues to bring in good profits:
Watch for any Maiden or Maiden Claimer that is
spotted in a higher level race with winners (open claimer, stakes, handicap, allowance -
etc.). If it loses that race (very likely) and is then run back
with maidens for it's next race - bet it. If it then loses that race
with a decent showing - bet it back one more time.
Why does that spot play work so well? I think
the answer has to do with the psychology of the horse. Many of those
runners "wake-up" when entered with winners. They will watch those
others that have already figured out how to run to win - and feel, and
learn in one race what the game is all about for them.
Below is another spot-play/ (race condition-play) that
also has a bit of this learning process involved, as well as trainer-intent
and expectations.
Fred Davis was a horse handicapping researcher who
published in the early 70's. He was heavily into statistics, and did
exhaustive studies that led him to his creation of "Impact Values."
These were essentially long-term ROI expectations for narrowly-defined niches
discovered in the over-all results stats from thousands of horse races.
One interesting part of his findings had to do
with Allowance-level horses, and was somewhat like the spot-play given above .
. .
Anytime a horse has been
entered into a stakes race (any non-restricted stakes) - then is brought
back into an allowance race following the stakes try - they run much better
than their odds overall. And - they do this regardless of how they
ran in that stakes try.
If (and only if) these runners have
never been entered in a claiming race - they win far more than their rightful
share, and provide a good positive ROI expectancy . . . bet them.
Why does this spot play
work?
These are horses in whom the trainers have seen
extra promise - enough to give them an early try at stakes glory. They
are usually young horses, and this race gives them another good lesson in the
game of serious racing against higher quality foes. They learn, light bulbs go
on, and they then apply that new-found awareness and extra conditioning
against the 'lesser' allowance competition when entered back at that level.
The proof of the value of this spot play was
exhibited by the figures Davis got for other patterns of Allowance horses:
- Allowance horses that had never been entered in a stakes (only straight maiden and other
allowance races) won fewer than they should and returned a negative
expectancy.
- Allowance runners that had at any time been entered into a claiming race
(maiden claimers or straight claimers) had a miserable ROI and were real money
burners.
in your horse handicapping, by scanning through the pp's for 5 or 6 tracks
each day - you will get several plays a week. Combine those with the
maiden-back-against-winners play mentioned earlier and you would have even
more plays.
You could bet nothing else - no other types of races - and still
rake steady profits following just these.
The addition of basic, solid
handicapping principles to the play can only enhance its return.
As I've discussed many times, what a player
really wants from the races will determine what he/she gets from the game.
Do you want lots of action, excitement, and entertainment? Okay - you've got a
never-ending supply of that out there.
Steady profits is another matter
altogether. If you want a restricted set of spot-plays that will churn out
those steady profits - that possibility is also out there - it's really
your choice.
