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Horse
Racing Gold
Question:What is the most important skill we can acquire as race players?
Right! Betting and money management skills - no doubt about it.
Most players - the large percentage - are still into picking the best horse. Now, some might argue, “But if I pick the horse most likely to win - I’m most likely to make some money” -
Not!
Most of the greatest horses of all time were defeated in races where they looked like lead-pipe cinches. All favorites lose two thirds of the time!
What’s more, if a horse looks like it’s most likely to win, everyone and their grandmothers will be getting down on that horse. It may very well be the most likely to win today’s race, but it will be an underlay and well below any legitimate level of value for win betting.
A lot of players (mostly the unsuccessful and/or those with small bankrolls) play to win only. Old time handicapping wisdom said, “If you can’t make money on win only betting - you won’t be able make money on exotics betting.”
Remember, however, that even just 10 years ago there were few exotics bets offered. When I first started playing the races at Santa Anita in 1978, they offered only a daily double on the first two races and a $5.00 (only) exacta in the 5th and 7th (usually) races - that was it! No pick 4 or pick 6, no trifectas or triples.
Now at various tracks you can bet: rolling pick threes in every race, daily doubles on all races, pick 3/4/6/7/or 9, trifectas and superfectas - and a slew of other “crazy” bets offered at a few tracks.
The straight-forward conservative win-only betting approach is really a carry-over from a more limited and conservative era of race betting.
Like so many other axioms, concepts, handicapping factors and “hossy sayings” that have carried forward from that bygone era - this one too is in error.
Why?
The most basic fact of pari-mutuel wagering is that we are in a competition. We are competing for a portion of a pool of money. That pool is composed of four kinds of money:
1. Money from savvy and successful handicapper/bettors
2. Money from insiders (so-called “smart money”)
3. Money from low-skilled “fans” of racing
4. Money from un-informed “dart throwers”
Fortunately for those who are striving to move into the first listed category above, a huge percentage of the money in the exotics pools come from third and fourth categories.
The new profusion of of different exotic bets has increased the level of confusion for the average player.
Everyone loves the idea hitting a huge score for a small bet, but the lesser skilled players are seldom sure which pool to play or how to play it. They end up throwing a lot of “foolish” money at the exacta, trifecta and superfecta. They don’t bet for value. They simply box up the logical looking horses with the favorite, or they take flyers on the longshots hoping for a monster score.
The sharp players are putting money into those pools also.Heavy hitters attempt to “hide” money in the blind pools like the trifecta, superfecta and triple. Smart players spread their plays out into a “portfolio” as well - not so much to hide their bets, but to position themselves for more consistent and potentially higher returns.
On the whole, the fairness of the win odds/prices are easier to apprehend - even for the novice bettor. The value in the exotics pools is much harder to distinguish - therefore the foolish money in these pools is even more hit-and-miss than in the win pools.
Pros attack the exotics pools - period. I know of none who don’t.
The exacta and trifecta pools in almost all races are larger than the win pools. Successful betting in the current racing scene requires inclusion of these exotics in the betting plan. I’m speaking of making an income at the track.Small profits can be made just win betting, but in order to get up into the “professional” level of 30 or 40 thousand a year and higher - playing the exotics is a must. This is especially true at the smaller tracks. The smaller win pools at these tracks just won’t handle the size bets a player would
need to make in order to get large yearly returns.
Summary -
Large payoff type bets attract more bettors. The big percentage of these bettors are, however, unskilled at wagering for value - especially in the “hidden pools.” These pools are flooded with poorly played tickets.These pools reflect the inefficiency of the average bettor and have themselves become inefficient (often to the extreme). This inefficiency more than makes up for the increased track take-out (often 25 to 30%). Sharp players should definitely be moving into these pools and garnering for themselves some of this “foolish” money.
Your bottom-line and future in race betting depend on it.
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