Class Drops

 

First - this letter will not go into depth on the theory of "class" and what it is or how to define it. 

There have been numerous good handicapping writers that have proposed various theories and ideas on this question.  Needless to say, there is not a consensus on the subject.  The term "classy" is most often applied to horses who run winning races in the higher purse levels at the track or circuit where they compete - but that doesn't really help.

It would be nice if we could come up with a neat way of judging class.  The reality of the situation though is often puzzling.  

Say we're looking at a $30K open claimer: It might include a last out maiden special winner, or a runner from an optional claimer, a restricted claimer, a starter handicap, an allowance race - or, God forbid, all of the above!

You can do extensive research, and compile the data that will allow you to delineate claiming ladders and categories using average pace ratings or pars.  I certainly applaud that kind of research and do some of it myself.  However; after 26 years in the game, I've concluded one thing: 

Race betting can be a whole lot simpler than some "experts" try to make it.

 

 

So, as I said, I'm not going to try and solve this puzzle.  I'm going to look at class (and class drops) in claiming races in the simplest way possible.

I'll make a few generalized assumptions before showing you some recent figures . . .

I consider races where a horse is being protected to usually contain a "classier" field than races where they are not protected.  Included are; Optional claimers, starter handicaps and allowance races - as opposed to straight claimers (at similar price levels) where the horse can be lost via a claim.

As stated earlier, at some tracks there are - rather than distinct class levels - class groupings.  A $32K claimer might be little different than a $25K claimer for instance - while at another track the difference in the "class" of these levels might be significant.  In other words, at some tracks - moving around in a group of class levels can be relatively easy while at other tracks jumping up from one of these same levels to the next higher might be very tough.

 

The table below includes all the double-digit winners from the tracks issued by Horse Racing Gold for the week of June, 9th through June, 13th.  These were all the straight claiming races run at at 5 to 9 furlongs.

"Class drops" (any drop in claiming price or drop from a "protected" race into an open race) will be shown in red - class jumps in blue.
(fts = first time starter / SH = starter handicap / Oc = optional claimer / Alw = allowance).

 

Date	Track	race #	last race class level	today's race level	win price
6/9	cd	5	fts	Mc 15K	$34.60
	"	8	50K	30K	$12.60
	"	10	Mdn	Mc 15K	$10.60
	bel	6	Mc 40	Mc 40	$20.20
	"	9	75K	50K	$11.80
	bm	1	12.5K	12.5K	$10.60
	"	8	25K	12.5K	$11.80
	hol	5	Mdn	Mc 40	$13.00
	"	6	50K	50K	$10.00
	mon	2	Mc25K	Mc 50K	$17.00
	wo	6	40K	20K	$13.80
6/10	bel	1	Mdn	Mc 40K	$13.80
	"	2	35K	35K	$14.20
	"	5	50K	50K	$12.40
	cd	1	8K	8K	$14.80
	"	7	Mc 20	Mc 15	$31.80
	hol	4	32K	40K	$10.00
	lad	6	Mdn	Mc 12.5	$10.60
	mon	3	SH	16.K	$10.00
	"	4	Mdn	Mc 22	$15.40
	"	6	10K	10K	$23.60
	wo	2	40K	20K	$31.70
	"	4	32K	20K	$26.50
6/11	bel	1	Mc 45	Mc 35	$18.80
	bm	3	Oc 16	12.5K	$11.40
	cd	2	20K	20 K	$10.20
	"	3	25 K	15 K	$10.20
	"	7	30 K	30 K	$37.00
	"	8	Mc 10K	Mc 12.5K	$26.40
	"	10	Mc 15	Mc 15	$10.20
	crc	4	6.25K	6.25 K	$17.20
	"	8	Oc 16 K	16 K	$13.40
	hol	1	Mc 40	Mc 32	$10.20
	"	4	32 K	25 K	$23.20
	"	6	Mc 40	Mc 25	$17.60
	"	8	12.5 K	10 K	$15.60
	mon	1	Mdn	Mc 16	$17.80
	"	3	Mc 16 K	16 K	$13.60
	wo	7	80 K	40 K	$25.60
6/12	mon		20 K	20 K	$17.80
	"		50 K	35 K	$10.40
	bm		10 K	10 K	$31.00
	crc		10 K	10 K	$52.00
	"		25 K	10 K	$78.00
	bel		35 K	35 K	$18.60
	hol		Fts	Mc 40	$27.60
	"		16 K	16 K	$14.60
6/13	bel		20 K	25 K	$15.80
	"		20 K	25 K	$12.80
	"		Alw	40 K	$11.80
	crc		16 K	10 K	$42.00
	"		6.25 K	5 K	$19.00
	"		12.5 K	10 K	$10.60
	"		Alw	40 K	$11.00
	"		25 K	25 K	$13.20
	cd		10 K	15 K	$17.00
	"		Mc 15 K	Mc 15 K	$86.40
	bm		Mc 12.5 K	Mc 8 K	$10.20
	"		Mc 32 K	Mc 32 K	$14.60
	"		Mc 32 K	Mc 16 K	$14.00
	"		40 K	20 K	$15.80
	hol		Stakes	40 K	$19.80
	"		50 K	40 K	$15.00
	"		fts	Mc 25	$18.60

 

 

Results:  There were 64 double-digit winners during this one week span at these tracks.  

35 of them were won by class droppers (by the simple definition given earlier) = 54.7%
18 were won by horses staying at the same class level = 28.1%
Only 7 were won by horses rising in class = 10.9%

I've presented this short research only to make a generalized point:  If you're going for "price horses" - droppers should be given extra consideration.  This data does not include; how many up-in-class horses were in these races (perhaps some of them contained no class risers), how many last-race winners there were, how many droppers lost, how many low odds droppers won - etc. etc..

I hope, though, that the results will re-enforce in your mind one over-riding fact of racing: Horses dropping in class win far more than they should.  Jim Quinn gave this figure in 1983, "Horses dropping by 30% or more win 378% of their rightful share of races!"

So - when you see a low-odds horse that has become the crowd favorite because of a last-race win or second at lower levels - don't be reticent about betting against it if there other hard-knocking class droppers in the race.

 

 

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