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Horse
Racing Gold
Betting Place Parlays
Here is a statistic that has stood for decades: One of the top three public choices - that is, one of the lowest three odds on the tote board - wins 67% of all races.
Perhaps even more amazing - and maybe something you can use to your betting advantage - is that one of those three finishes 1st or 2nd an astounding 90% of the time!
You probably know Horse Racing Gold is firmly (even devoutly!) contrarian. For the kind of wagering we advise, patience is an absolute must - success cannot be had without it.Wouldn't it be nice though if one part of the betting portfolio was always winning at a very high percentage? Even if the profits were relatively low, the psychological boost would be of immeasurable value.
Following is a possible approach based on the statistics mentioned above . . .
First off - you do feel you are a better handicapper than the public don't you?
That's not to be taken lightly of course. In general, the overall public opinion is an excellent judge of fair odds. I'll go on the assumption that you do your own handicapping and have more confidence in that than a strict observance of what the public is doing.
So -
Handicap the races as you usually do and rank the horses in the order that you give them a chance to win the race.
At five minutes to post, after eliminating any in top four at 17-1 or higher, take the lowest two odds of the (remaining) top four in your handicapped list - and keep them in the order that you ranked them - ex:
Your ranking with odds:
#3 - 7/2
#2 - 5/1
#4 - 1/1
#1 - 6/1
#5 - 10/1
You are going to bet the #3 and the #4 in an "all possible ways" multiple parlay series.
The top ranked choice (#3 above) will be labeled "1" and the second ranked choice (#4 above) will be labeled "2" You are going to have two horses from every race, and these are going to be parlayed to the next race in each possible order for both:
1-1 1-2 2-1 2-2
The top ranked choice will be parlayed to the top ranked choice in the next race as well as to the second ranked choice in the next raceand -
The second ranked choice will be parlayed to the second ranked choice in the next race as well as to the top ranked choice in the next race.
Below is a two-week (10 successive days) series at Charles Town exactly as issued to our subscribers.
| Date | race # | Qual 1 | Qual 2 | $20 parlays 1-1 |
$20 parlays 2-2 |
$20 parlays 1-2 |
$20 parlays 2-1 |
| 7/31 | 1 | 5.40 | x | ||||
| " | 2 | 7.00 | x | $189.00 | |||
| " | 4 | 5.60 | 3.60 | $196.00 | $126.00 | ||
| " | 5 | 3.20 | x | $89.60 | $57.60 | ||
| " | 9 | x | x | ||||
| 8/1 | 2 | 3.80 | x | ||||
| " | 3 | 3.80 | x | $72.20 | |||
| " | 5 | x | 3.60 | $68.40 | |||
| " | 7 | x | 3.20 | $57.60 | |||
| " | 8 | 3.00 | 4.40 | $70.40 | $48.00 | ||
| " | 9 | x | x | ||||
| " | 10 | x | 4.40 | ||||
| 8/2 | 2 | 3.40 | x | $74.80 | |||
| " | 3 | x | x | ||||
| " | 4 | 3.60 | 3.00 | ||||
| " | 7 | 4.00 | x | $72.00 | $60.00 | ||
| 8/3 | 2 | x | x | ||||
| " | 4 | 3.00 | 2.40 | ||||
| " | 6 | 7.20 | 4.20 | $108.00 | $50.40 | $63.00 | $86.40 |
| " | 8 | 4.20 | x | $151.20 | $88.20 | ||
| 8/4 | 2 | x | x | ||||
| " | 4 | 5.80 | x | ||||
| " | 6 | x | 3.80 | $110.20 | |||
| " | 8 | x | 3.60 | $68.40 | |||
| " | 10 | x | x | ||||
| 8/7 | 4 | x | 7.40 | ||||
| " | 7 | 3.20 | x | $118.40 | |||
| " | 9 | x | x | ||||
| " | 10 | 11.40 | x | ||||
| 8/8 | 1 | 5.60 | x | $319.20 | |||
| " | 5 | x | 6.20 | $173.60 | |||
| " | 7 | 3.00 | 2.80 | $86.80 | $93.00 | ||
| " | 8 | x | 5.40 | $92.40 | $99.00 | ||
| " | 10 | x | x | ||||
| 8/9 | 2 | 8.40 | 3.80 | ||||
| " | 6 | 4.80 | x | $201.60 | $91.20 | ||
| " | 7 | x | x | ||||
| " | 8 | 4.00 | x | ||||
| " | 10 | x | 5.60 | $112.00 | |||
| 8/10 | 2 | x | 3.60 | $100.80 | |||
| " | 4 | 2.40 | 2.60 | $46.80 | $43.20 | ||
| " | 6 | x | 8.60 | $111.80 | $103.20 | ||
| " | 7 | 3.40 | 3.00 | $129.00 | $146.20 | ||
| " | 8 | x | x | ||||
| " | 10 | x | 3.80 | ||||
| 8/11 | 4 | x | 3.80 | $72.20 | |||
| " | 7 | 3.00 | x | $57.00 | |||
| :" | 9 | x | 5.00 | 75.00 | |||
| " | 10 | x | 4.20 | 105.00 |
| 1-1 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| tot $ in | tot $ out | tot $ in | tot $ out | tot $ in | tot $ out | tot $ in | tot $ out |
| $960.00 | $1,398.80 | $960.00 | $991.60 | $960.00 | $930.40 | $960.00 | $964.00 |
| tot $ profit | ROI | tot $ profit | ROI | tot $ profit | RIO | tot $ profit | ROI |
| +$438.80 | +45.7% | +$31.60 | +3.3% | - $29.60 | - 3.1% | +$4.00 | +0.4% |
Cumulative results: $3840.00 in $4,284.80 out
Profit: +$444.80 ROI: +11.6%
The totals of that two weeks worth of betting at Charles Town . . .
There were 49 races issued in these 10 days - one (or both) of our two choices ran 1st or 2nd in 39 of those races for a 79.6% rate.
This compares favorably with the 90% figure quoted at the beginning - remember some of "our top two choices" will not be in the low three final odds - and therefore will pay off at a correspondingly higher avg. price.
Top choice (as defined above) to place: 24 of 49
Second choice to place: 24 of 49
(This does not equate to cashing in all but one race - as 9 times both our two horses ran 1st or 2nd and 9 times neither ran 1st or 2nd)
Return on straight $2.00 place bets:
Top choice - $98 in $112.2 out for an ROI of +14.5%
Second choice - $98 in $102 out for an ROI of +4.1%
Combined - $196 in 214.2 for an ROI of +9.3%
________________________
But the return on the parlays bumped that ROI up to 11.6%
Of course, the best ROI would have come from concentrating on the top horse alone - but again, one of the goals here is to get a very high percentage of cashed tickets while still having a respectable profit.
If you were betting $20 place parlays (got to be a bit conservative when using this at small pool tracks like Ct) each race - You'd have $80.00 starting in each race.Using the above figures, a player would have not only been cashing tickets in more than 3 of every 4 races (!) - he would have earned a profit of $445.00 in those two weeks. This would be a decent return on its own, or a good start towards covering exacta and/or trifecta bets on the longer odds horses going for the larger scores.
You should test this on your own handicapping before committing real money. A back test, or an on-going paper test of two or three weeks at two or three different tracks should point you in the right direction.
