Odds - follow the value, or follow the money?

Odds really are the crux of the matter in race betting.  So much of how we look at a horse race has to do with odds; morning line, our own betting line, the patterns of the betting leading up to the race, the near post-time odds, and the final odds.

There is a basic conceptual error that is everywhere in race playing . . .

Players fall into the "system mode" - that is, they find something that works, and they start to play that situation by rote - always repeating just like the last time. The desire for an unfailing method - for consistency - is completely natural and understandable.

But - the reality of race betting is always right there on the infield totalizator board - forever sending flashing reminders to you: 

"This is not a static game." 

You've got a newly updated reality coming at you every 60 seconds!

Everything you brought with you; the hours of late-night handicapping, the years of testing - rejecting - and testing again, all the retooling and honing, the preconceptions and "hossy" myths of all types, your horses-to-watch list, and on and on - it all must be modified now by the current reality of those changing odds.

So how are we to best look at those odds?

There are two distinct camps - those that want to see the odds on their horses go up - and those that want to see the odds on their horses go down ( !! ).

The first group are the "value" players - those that require any horse they bet to be an overlay to their own betting line. The basic stance here is:

 "I've done my work - I'm quite sure I'm a better handicapper than 90% of the others betting in this race, so I'll take advantage of any unrealistic betting on the part of the crowd and when they over-bet one or two horses and let others rise to attractive odds - I'll bet those."

The other group - the "follow the money" players - admits there are players who are sharper than they are - professionals and insiders who load-up on the really "good things." The basic stance here is:

 "Money makes this game go. If I closely watch and follow the money, I'll be getting the best of it in the long run."

Let's say a player in the "value group" has a list of 4 horses that he believes are contenders in a 10 horse field. He's made fair odds on on his top horse at 3-1 / his second horse at 5-1 / his third at 7-1 and his fourth at 11-1. 

If his second ranked horse goes off at 2-1, this player would not now be interested in wagering on this horse (to win).  Let's say his third ranked horse is going off at 12-1, there is where he will bet.  He's concerned with betting overlays to his own opinion - this is where he finds value. He is willing to pit his understanding of the race - his opinion - against the opinion of the crowd.

A player from the "follow-the-money" group has probably delved much less in-depth into the race.  He has a general feel for what he thinks would be fair odds for his contenders, but is more likely using the track morning line as a guide. He is watching for "action" - unexpected betting interest on certain horses. The key here is "unexpected."  If a horse that is 9-5 on the morning line is getting bet steadily, and is at 7-5 near post-time - that's likely the poorly informed crowd's money - the "band wagon jumpers" betting on a public
handicapper's choice. 

If; however, he sees a horse that was 7-1 on the morning line now at 5-2, he considers that surprise betting action - probably from so-called "smart money" - the stable or connections, professional handicappers, etc.. Though the value players see this as an underlay, he sees it as an opportunity to follow the smart money.

This approach can be applied to pure tote watching with little or no handicapping involved.  But - as with most things in life - a middle road, a synthesis of the best of both the "value" and the "tote" approach would be better than either alone or either extreme.

Making a personal betting line - whether unique to each individual race, or an "averaged" line (as discussed in the last issue of Nuggets) would set the player up to notice unusual betting action and not to be confused by crowd money flowing in at a perhaps unanticipated high volume.

When good handicapping principles have been applied and a horse has been made at fair odds of 9-1, then those odds are bet down to say 3-1 on a horse who is not picked by the public handicappers and doesn't have stand-out positives - well, now that isn't the crowd betting.

It might be insider money, or it might just be a large bettor who is no more well informed - no sharper - than anyone else.  Realize that there are lots of bettors to whom a $1000-$2000 wager is not serious money - the equivalent of $10-$20 for the avg. player.


There is a way to check  -  look into the other pools. 


Real smart money will follow the precepts of smart risk management applicable to any field of speculation - they will spread the risk.  Smart money prefers to try and insure a profit by participating in more than one pool. The "portfolio" philosophy put forth by Horse Racing Gold is also used by these savvy players.

Further verification - the kind that might send you to the windows at a fast canter - can be found in the exacta pools.  The exacta projected payoffs are the key:  Check the combinations.  If they seem overplayed - especially to the low and middle priced horses - it's almost certain to be money spread by the same bettor who distorted the place or show pools.


This kind of checking should be done a few times during the 20 minute betting period. Some "evening up" may occur in the final minutes.  The value players who happen to be watching those same pools may hammer the over-laid situations back into near balance - and the "smart money" effect would be less easily noticed.

You may consider yourself one or the other of the above two types of players (or neither). You may be a casual "tote watcher" or never have paid it any attention. You may bet strictly for value sometimes and by "feel" at other times - whatever. . .

But - I'll close with this:

Stay out of the "boxes" that catch so many players - be it in the game of racing or the game of life.  Be reticent to cast your lot with a specific group, method, or way of thinking. Don't carve anything in stone - stay light and ready.  Change happens faster than we would usually care to believe.  Spontaneity and adaptability will serve well - to whatever kind of decision making they are applied.